Wen $1 EGG?
As the Chikn NFT project surpasses the 10 month mark since inception, we’re witnessing a snowballing of hype and anticipation towards the project and its upcoming releases. Positive sentiment is brimming within the Chikn Twitter and Discord communities. Even long time fudders appear to be warming to a future where Clints dream of “parabolic conditions” could be realised, if not already.
Perhaps those Chikn eternalists can even retire their rose coloured glasses.
Green candles are best viewed through a clear lens.
Then some like to dream beyond where we are, or perhaps where we were, asking “Wen $1 egg?”
Before daring answer what could be a rhetorical question, let’s reflect on this trying period of the Crypto bear market, and the momentum shift that’s transpired.
Since the market crash in early April, where Avax went from a high of around $100, to a brief low of under $14, Egg expectedly followed suit. From earlier pricing of $1.20~1.60, to a low of nearly 14 cents three months later. Because Egg has proved to largely move with the price of Avax, it’s best to look at the token price relative to Avax rather that USD.
Just looking at the price with respect to USD, Egg price appeared stable in USD, teetering around 16-20 cents in the months June, July and most of August. Less apparent on the surface, was an almost depegging of the Egg price against Avax. It was steadily declining downwards, seemingly heading to zero:
Those faithful among us held on, perhaps some with one hand near the eject button, whilst continuing to burn their tokens within the ecosystem in an attempt to mitigate the unfolding inflation. Many others simply lost some faith, and justified FUD would appear in the Discord from time to time.
More reassuring of market sentiment was the floor pricing of Chikn NFT’s. The pricing remained stable at around 30-35 avax in those same months:
Then came Feed Wars.
Feed - the only finite token of the three - minted by Farming the Egg/Avax LP on your FarmLand, hit a point of inflection around 20th of August. Whilst it too had been declining rapidly, as expected due to the high mint rate versus the slower burn rate (not to mention the diminishing returns on feed for fatter chooks which puts downwards pressure on feed price), the market sentiment suddenly flipped. The community became more aware of the mortality of Feed farming. The inevitable point where all the supply will be minted out, leaving the open market as the only way to obtain Feed in order to burn it on your Chikn to increase your roosts egg production.
Discussions on Discord and on the Bokcast twitter spaces, largely instigated by V Forever were had about how the larger holders could band together and burn their large Egg holdings using the Egg to Feed swap function, and immediately dry up all remaining Feed supply. Whilst it seemed more of an interesting thought experiment than something that might happen, a few whales started doing this. Fortunately for several security reasons, the devs do not store all the mintable feed in the contract wallet so feasibly this was not quite as risky as it seemed. However the devs caught everyone off guard and drastically reduced the swap rate well below the market price, reducing it from 1 Egg for 800 Feed, down to 100 Feed.
Then the FOMO really kicked in.
People started hoarding their Feed instead of selling, buying Feed to hodl, and also begun buying more Egg in order to boost their LP to farm more feed. They also bought more Fert to fertilise their FarmLands for a higher multiplier for even higher yield. Before you could blink, Feed was mooning. Up 200% in a few days, then a high of around 600% some weeks later:
The other tokens also headed north.
Importantly, Egg stopped declining against Avax, up 100% from its low, thanks to the increased demand for Egg, as well as increased Egg burn (eggburn.zyz):
However, due to weak Avax performance ($17.50 at time of writing), Egg price is sitting at just 23 cents despite doubling against Avax.
Which leads back to the question that inspired this post. Wen $1 egg?
During Bokcast #28, V forever made the comments “(Egg) doesn't really have to go back up to a dollar to make it profitable”. “100% ROI is really just not sustainable over any sort of long term”.
My takeaway from that: The longer a project sustains itself, proving itself in the market, the lower the perception of risk, and therefore people are willing to pay more for the yield bearing NFT, in effect lowering the ROI. A reliable 100% return is simply unlikely long term when considering current prices. Chikn floor prices will always be dictated by the smart money who understand the project. This certainly doesn’t mean egg will never get back to $1, and if the next releases turn out to be successful, a price beyond $1 is by all means possible. Especially if Eggnite turns out to be a hit. And that’s before discussing the active games, Chikn Quest and Coq fighting. There’s so much ahead of us. I’m eggcited.
UPDATE 26th October: More than a month since posting, Avax lingers down low at $16-17, meanwhile, Egg is charging ahead, currently at 30 cents (Not to mention Chikn floor absolutely killing it at 125 avax). Without any increased Egg demand (which we know will happen), an Avax price of $55 would see that $1 egg price. $1 egg is in the realms of possibility, one way or another. Wen $10 Egg, I hear you ask. Bok Bok!
